The Role of Inflation Uncertainty on Economic Growth: The Case of the WAEMU(Pages: 01-11)

Cheikh Tidiane Ndiaye* and Mamadou Abdoulaye Konte

LARES, Department of Economics and Management, Gaston Berger University, BP.234, Saint-Louis, Senegal

Abstract:

This article proposes an assessment of the role of uncertainty arising from the volatility of inflation on the economic growth of WAEMU countries. The study is based on a VAR-GARCH model that is likely to highlight the links between uncertain inflation and economic growth using conditional volatility as an approximation of uncertainty at a given time. The results suggest the volatile persistence of inflation and economic activity on the one hand, and a negative role played by uncertainty on economic growth in Guinea-Bissau and Togo, on the other. For other countries, the effect of uncertainty was considered to be insignificant.

Keywords:

Inflation, Uncertainty, Economic Fluctuation, Economic Growth, WAEMU.